Market Pulse — June 4, 2025 (2:28PM)
| Index | Current Bias | Signal Strength | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPY) | ↗ Grinding Up, Divergent Internals | Moderate | SPY at 597.42 with 8-session high fade; T2108 at 66.01, T2105 at 0.17 — breadth still weak. |
| Treasury Yields | ⬆ Pressing Highs | High | 10Y yield at 4.416%. Bias leans risk-off above 4.65%. |
| Fed Outlook | ↔ Hawkish Hold | Medium | Jobs miss + Powell tension = hold bias, CPI still key ahead. |
| Credit Risk (CDS) | ⬆ Defensive Bid | High | CDS at 44.99bps. Traders watching 50bps threshold — fragility theme active. |
| Gold | ↗ Quiet Bid | Moderate | Gold steady near $3,405. Tailwind from weak dollar + rates stall. |
Distortion: 86 / 100 — High Risk-on/Off Conflict
Distribution Days: 3 on Nasdaq, 2 on S&P 500
| Signal Component | Reading | Conflict Detected? |
|---|---|---|
| Media Tone | “Tariff overhang delayed, not resolved” (WSJ, Fox, CNBC) | ⚠ Yes |
| Bond Market Behavior | 10Y holding >4.40%, close to inflection zone | ✅ Yes |
| Options Skew (SPY) | Bearish skew intact for July expiration | ✅ Yes |
| Economic Data | ADP jobs miss adds pressure; CPI next week critical | ⚠ Yes |
Currencies & Crypto
| Signal | Observation | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Dollar Index (DXY) | Flat near 99 — soft trend holding | Tailwind for BTC and gold positioning |
| Risk Sentiment | VIX fading to 17.66, CDS easing slightly | Rotation over chase; protection bias not gone |
| China Liquidity | Stimulus flows sustain; drone + REE catching tailwind | Eyes on UMAC, MP for next move |
| Institutional Flow | Momentum easing; staples, BTC still favored | Rotation watching 4.65% yield + SPY 584 |
📌 BTC: 105,195 | LTC: 89.31 — both bouncing with dollar/yield softening. Watch BTC >106.2K, LTC >90. SPY <584 or 10Y >4.65% flips bias defensive.
U.S. Equity Snapshot – June 4, 2025
Written in the style of Peter Lynch
The market’s inching up again, which is nice if you’re long, but don’t mistake movement for meaning.
SPY crept past 596, poking its head above the recent range like a prairie dog wondering if the coast is clear. That might sound like a breakout, but if you’ve been around markets long enough, you know the difference between a real surge and a polite suggestion. This? This is a shrug with a price tag.
The internals look like leftovers. T2105, the measure of stocks above their 20-day moving average, is sitting at a whopping 0.22. That’s not a typo—that’s a warning. Nobody’s really participating. T2108 is a little better at 66, but you’re still looking at a handful of generals marching without the army.
Volatility’s asleep, but everyone’s still buying helmets.
The VIX is dozing at 21, but people are still lining up to buy puts like they know something. There’s no real panic—just this steady, uneasy hum, like someone forgot to turn the oven off.
Bonds? Still skeptical.
The 10-year yield is holding above 4.61%, and the 5-year CDS isn’t budging either. If this rally had anything behind it—earnings, policy, sentiment—you’d see credit loosening up. You don’t.
Tariffs are the ghost at the banquet.
Sure, the trade drama's taken a breather thanks to some legal tap dancing, but July 9 isn’t going away. That’s when the next shoe might drop, and right now, the market's acting like it’s wearing sandals.
The real story?
Stocks are rising not because things are good, but because nothing bad showed up today. There’s no earnings boom, no fiscal surge, no magical policy pivot. Just... less bad news. And sometimes, that’s enough to keep the party going—for a while.
But if you’re looking for a full participation rally, this ain’t it. Credit doesn’t believe it. Breadth doesn’t back it. And history says when too few names do too much lifting, the bench usually breaks.
What to do?
Stay selective. Don’t chase. Buy what you understand and avoid stories that sound too slick. There’s no crime in holding cash when conviction’s on vacation.
The market might float a little higher, sure. But until the floor lifts with it, don’t forget where gravity lives.